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Saturday, September 11, 2021
I want to invest in the Stock Market-The Philosophy of the Market
OBSERVATIONS OF SPECIAL VALUE
In this article you will look at the market in terms of a game of cards, observing the wholesale-retail concept in the ever-recurring phases of accumulation (BUY) and distribution (SELL).
Commentary: There are basic mechanics of equal and opposite motion in the market which must be firmly understood before you commit your capital or your savings into the maelstrom of daily market 's price fluctuation.You are now to about to learn why the market , like a theater , has just so many seats and can accommodate just so many people , the rest having to sit on the floor. Everybody cannot be right and everybody cannot be wrong.
For every buyer there is a seller and for every seller there must be a buyer.It takes a pair of these opposites to make a market. This is so basic and obvious that is almost an insult to the reader's intelligence in repeating it in this article but it is essential at all times to never lose sight on this fundamental truth.
When the market is going UP rapidly it is easily forgotten during the excitement that somebody is supplying the stock. If the technical indicators are calling for a near-term decline it can be guessed that the stock suppliers on the rise comprise the "smart money" element. It is easily forgotten during a sharp decline that somebody is buying stock. If the technical indicators call for a near-term advance of considerable proportion it can be surmised that the stock buyers constitute the informed minority.
You have seen the basic theory of opposites at work in such major indicators as the short interest -SEE THE FOLLOWING Links- for more detail
I want to Invest in the Stock Market - What Is a Short Stock Interest?
I want to Invest in the Stock Market – Further Thoughts on the Short Interest
Before you take any decision keep in consideration-When the pendulum swings in one direction the mechanics calling for a an eventual reverse movement are always in play. When one goes short on a stock the trader expects it to go lower.
When too many people go short the stock or the markets can't go lower because that many people can't be right. We know that the markets' short interest as of July - 2015 is at all time high at the same level as 2008.
The short interest then is a measure of majority opinion, As majority opinion swings increasingly to the bullish side of the market(low short interest) the more bearish the actual position of the market (sharply rising short interest like in 2015) the more bullish the actual position of the market is.
The extremes indicates the major BUY and SELL points in the market trend. The theory of opposites characterizes the meaning of the odd-lot trading figures. When the public is doing the heaviest buying the technical position of the market is the weakest and when the public is selling on balance the technical position of the market is the strongest
The market just can't and will not accommodate that many people and therefore the OBVIOUS IS OBVIOUSLY WRONG.
Bottom Line: The public is always attracted to the obvious and thus the major timing errors in the market are constantly being committed by the public. You now want to divorce yourself from the public mold and look beyond the obvious, escape the majority and join the informed minority. This transition can be made easier by examining the motivations behind the molding of majority opinion , the "WHY" of it all.
Who molds majority opinion? CNBC-Cramer - Market Analyst , Bloomberg ect.
In view of the fact that the majority of people do not have the time or the aptitude to delve into all the mechanics and techniques of stock market behavior , human nature , with is natural gravity toward laziness , dictates that the task of determining what is really going on in the stock market and the economy in general at any particular time be reserved for government officials, magazine , financial web sites , editors , newspaper editors, financial writers , financial TV shows like CNBC , Mad Money from J.Cramer , Bloomberg TV and brokers .
Their pronouncements on the state of the economic , unemployment report , GDP or the condition of the stock market are generally believed and acted upon by the majority of the investing and speculating public.
These factions constitute the primary molders of majority opinion
Human Nature being what it is , the public majority is unfortunately wedded to majority opinion despite the fact that the stock market has proven such opinion wrong at the most critical times, just prior to market turns.
ASK –Angel - ASK Angel ABOUT STOCKS or the market
Got a question about the stock market or a specific stock?
Email Angel to wallstreetinaction@gmail.com , tweet or follow us in twitter Stockflash4ward Add us or follow in Facebook by looking for Angel Robaina or Wallstreetinaction
Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any mutual fund, exchange traded fund (ETF), stock, bonds and currency-Forex before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other important information, contact your broker. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
This article is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment or investment strategy. Past performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary and all investments involve risks, including loss of principal.
Neither wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward , Angel Robaina nor any of its officers, employees, representatives, agents or independent contractors are, in such capacities, licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers or registered broker-dealers.
Wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina do not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations, nor is it in the business of transacting trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client's situation.
Nothing contained in this communication constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, endorsement or offer by Wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina of any particular security, transaction or investment.
Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial
Wallstreetinaction , Stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina are separate but affiliated companies or individuals that are not responsible for each other's services or policies.
© 2021 WallstreetinAction All rights reserved.
In this article you will look at the market in terms of a game of cards, observing the wholesale-retail concept in the ever-recurring phases of accumulation (BUY) and distribution (SELL).
Commentary: There are basic mechanics of equal and opposite motion in the market which must be firmly understood before you commit your capital or your savings into the maelstrom of daily market 's price fluctuation.You are now to about to learn why the market , like a theater , has just so many seats and can accommodate just so many people , the rest having to sit on the floor. Everybody cannot be right and everybody cannot be wrong.
For every buyer there is a seller and for every seller there must be a buyer.It takes a pair of these opposites to make a market. This is so basic and obvious that is almost an insult to the reader's intelligence in repeating it in this article but it is essential at all times to never lose sight on this fundamental truth.
When the market is going UP rapidly it is easily forgotten during the excitement that somebody is supplying the stock. If the technical indicators are calling for a near-term decline it can be guessed that the stock suppliers on the rise comprise the "smart money" element. It is easily forgotten during a sharp decline that somebody is buying stock. If the technical indicators call for a near-term advance of considerable proportion it can be surmised that the stock buyers constitute the informed minority.
You have seen the basic theory of opposites at work in such major indicators as the short interest -SEE THE FOLLOWING Links- for more detail
I want to Invest in the Stock Market - What Is a Short Stock Interest?
I want to Invest in the Stock Market – Further Thoughts on the Short Interest
Before you take any decision keep in consideration-When the pendulum swings in one direction the mechanics calling for a an eventual reverse movement are always in play. When one goes short on a stock the trader expects it to go lower.
When too many people go short the stock or the markets can't go lower because that many people can't be right. We know that the markets' short interest as of July - 2015 is at all time high at the same level as 2008.
The short interest then is a measure of majority opinion, As majority opinion swings increasingly to the bullish side of the market(low short interest) the more bearish the actual position of the market (sharply rising short interest like in 2015) the more bullish the actual position of the market is.
The extremes indicates the major BUY and SELL points in the market trend. The theory of opposites characterizes the meaning of the odd-lot trading figures. When the public is doing the heaviest buying the technical position of the market is the weakest and when the public is selling on balance the technical position of the market is the strongest
The market just can't and will not accommodate that many people and therefore the OBVIOUS IS OBVIOUSLY WRONG.
Bottom Line: The public is always attracted to the obvious and thus the major timing errors in the market are constantly being committed by the public. You now want to divorce yourself from the public mold and look beyond the obvious, escape the majority and join the informed minority. This transition can be made easier by examining the motivations behind the molding of majority opinion , the "WHY" of it all.
Who molds majority opinion? CNBC-Cramer - Market Analyst , Bloomberg ect.
In view of the fact that the majority of people do not have the time or the aptitude to delve into all the mechanics and techniques of stock market behavior , human nature , with is natural gravity toward laziness , dictates that the task of determining what is really going on in the stock market and the economy in general at any particular time be reserved for government officials, magazine , financial web sites , editors , newspaper editors, financial writers , financial TV shows like CNBC , Mad Money from J.Cramer , Bloomberg TV and brokers .
Their pronouncements on the state of the economic , unemployment report , GDP or the condition of the stock market are generally believed and acted upon by the majority of the investing and speculating public.
These factions constitute the primary molders of majority opinion
Human Nature being what it is , the public majority is unfortunately wedded to majority opinion despite the fact that the stock market has proven such opinion wrong at the most critical times, just prior to market turns.
ASK –Angel - ASK Angel ABOUT STOCKS or the market
Got a question about the stock market or a specific stock?
Email Angel to wallstreetinaction@gmail.com , tweet or follow us in twitter Stockflash4ward Add us or follow in Facebook by looking for Angel Robaina or Wallstreetinaction
Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any mutual fund, exchange traded fund (ETF), stock, bonds and currency-Forex before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other important information, contact your broker. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
This article is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment or investment strategy. Past performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary and all investments involve risks, including loss of principal.
Neither wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward , Angel Robaina nor any of its officers, employees, representatives, agents or independent contractors are, in such capacities, licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers or registered broker-dealers.
Wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina do not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations, nor is it in the business of transacting trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client's situation.
Nothing contained in this communication constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, endorsement or offer by Wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina of any particular security, transaction or investment.
Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial
Wallstreetinaction , Stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina are separate but affiliated companies or individuals that are not responsible for each other's services or policies.
© 2021 WallstreetinAction All rights reserved.
You can’t control where the Crypto-Currency market is going
Commentary : Every day we can see the amount of buy orders and sell orders flow into the trading floors of NYSE, NASDAQ and others financial markets, and see option prices change in response, and then see how those option prices would change the implied volatility. That VIX indicator looked like a handy tool to gauge the fear or complacency in the market Today more and more investors started to believe a low VIX was an indication the market might be too complacent, overconfident and over-bought. A sell-off might be in the offing.
VIX chart until May 18 , 2015
If the VIX was high, fear was rampant. And while everyone else was panicking, some thought the high VIX was an indication the market would bounce back. The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Since its introduction in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility. Several investors expressed interest in trading instruments related to the market's expectation of future volatility, and so VIX futures were introduced in 2004, and VIX options were introduced in 2006. Options and futures on volatility indexes are available for investors who wish to explore the use of instruments that might have the potential to diversify portfolios in times of market stress. Maybe that’s true. Maybe not. There’s been a lot of chatter this year about whether the VIX can predict the direction of the market the VIX is just a weighted average of the out-of- the-money SPX options in the first two expirations, and then adjusted to mimic the volatility of an option with 30 days to expiration. Because it works off the actual bid/ask prices of those SPX options, it’s never “wrong.” It’s just a calculation. It is what it is. You can’t control where the market is going. Even picking direction is basically 50/50. But you can control the trading and investment strategy for your money. To me, the VIX is less of a market indicator and more of a strategy indicator. While less informed market participants and “talking heads” focus solely on the VIX as a number, many experienced traders aren’t put off by how high or low the VIX is. They watch it to make more informed decisions about strategy. As a trader, you have to stay a step ahead of the noise. Stocks, indices, commodities, indicators—they all go up, down, or both, every day. Analysts usually try to attach some news or reason to try to explain why the market did what it did. But that’s looking backwards. A trader has to be forward looking. And the VIX can help you with that. If the VIX is going up, it means the out-of-the-money option prices, which are used in the VIX calculation, are rising. What’s making them go higher? Mechanically, it’s because market participants—traders, investors, money managers, you, me—are trying to buy more of them. That buying pressure pushes up the prices of options, which, in turn, pushes up the VIX. Picture 1-2015 VIX Since February of 2015 VIX has been staying pretty constant between 12.5 % to 15 %, it means the out-of-the-money option prices aren’t moving much higher or lower which could mean there really isn’t any strong buying or selling pressure on them. You don’t have to know why, necessarily. Again, it just is what it is. Think about the VIX as a tool to make more informed strategies, rather than to predict market direction. Is it high or low relative to where it’s been for the past few weeks? What you’re trying to do is gauge the overall level of fear or complacency in the market, and how that’s impacting option values Since February 2015 the low VIX (12.5 % to 15 %) was an indication the market might be too complacent, overconfident and over-bought. A sell-off might be in the offing.
Bottom Line
As a trader, you have to stay a step ahead of the noise. Stocks, indices, commodities, indicators they all go up, down, or both, every day. Analysts usually try to attach some news or reason to try to explain why the market did what it did. But that’s looking backwards. A trader has to be forward looking.
1. IF THE VIX IS LOW, that’s an indication that market participants are a bit complacent-in 2015 12.5% to 15 %, and option premiums are relatively low, too. It doesn’t mean they’re undervalued. It just means there’s less extrinsic value in those options than there would be if the VIX were high. That makes some option strategies, such as covered calls, naked short puts, or short verticals, for example, less attractive because the lower option values means less credits taken in for those strategies, which decreases potential profits and increases potential risk. Strategies such as buying slightly in-the-money calls in further expirations as a stock replacement strategy can make sense, particularly if you sell nearer-term expiration out-of-the-money calls against them. It’s like a covered call strategy, but when you use the in-the-money call instead of long stock, you have lower capital requirements and lower risk if the stock drops sharply. Also, in a low-volume environment, the long calls have lower extrinsic value, making them less expensive and have lower risk. That’s a straightforward transition from a covered call, which is buying stock and selling an out-of-the-money call.
VIX 1 year Weekly Chart -June 30 2015
2. IF THE VIX IS HIGH, that’s an indication that there’s a lot of uncertainty in the market, with fear about what might happen in the near term future. Often, the VIX is higher when the market has sold off sharply. Instead of buying stock, you might consider shorting a naked put. This is a strategy some consider when the market or an individual stock has sold off and volatility, i.e. the VIX, is up. The reason is if the stock has hit a recent low, the put is going to have a greater value because the stock price is down and volatility is higher. When you sell an out-of-the-money put for a higher credit, your cost basis for the stock is lower if the stock price declines further and you’re assigned on the put. And that means your maximum loss is lower and your potential profit is higher. But what if the market moves up or down, and the VIX doesn’t change much at all? A trader might scan the rest of the market, from the SP 500 to the NASDAQ composite, bonds, gold, oil, the US dollar and bell-weather stocks. If, say, the market is down, but larger stocks are up, then the VIX could be indicating the market isn’t in “panic mode” quite yet. Alternatively, if the equities in general are up and you expect the VIX to be lower and it’s not, that might indicate growing fear and uncertainty in some of the market participants who are still buying those out-of-the-money options as protection. THE POINT IS THAT YOU DON’T HAVE TO BE an expert option trader to use the VIX. Even novice investors who are getting started with options can use it to help make simple adjustments to their strategy that can potentially work to their advantage. The VIX is simply a tool. Whether it’s good or bad for your trading depends on how you interpret it. It is what it is.
VIX 9 months Daily chart until June 29 , 2015- Dow Jones Industrial drooped 350 points on that day
ASK –Angel - ASK Angel ABOUT STOCKS or the market
Got a question about the stock market or a specific stock?
Email Angel to wallstreetinaction@gmail.com , tweet or follow us in twitter Stockflash4ward Add us or follow in Facebook by looking for Angel Robaina or Wallstreetinaction
Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any mutual fund, exchange traded fund (ETF), stock, bonds and currency-Forex before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other important information, contact your broker. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
This article is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment or investment strategy. Past performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary and all investments involve risks, including loss of principal.
Neither wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward , Angel Robaina nor any of its officers, employees, representatives, agents or independent contractors are, in such capacities, licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers or registered broker-dealers.
Wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina do not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations, nor is it in the business of transacting trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client's situation.
Nothing contained in this communication constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, endorsement or offer by Wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina of any particular security, transaction or investment.
Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial
Wallstreetinaction , Stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina are separate but affiliated companies or individuals that are not responsible for each other's services or policies.
© 2021 WallstreetinAction All rights reserved.
VIX chart until May 18 , 2015
If the VIX was high, fear was rampant. And while everyone else was panicking, some thought the high VIX was an indication the market would bounce back. The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Since its introduction in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility. Several investors expressed interest in trading instruments related to the market's expectation of future volatility, and so VIX futures were introduced in 2004, and VIX options were introduced in 2006. Options and futures on volatility indexes are available for investors who wish to explore the use of instruments that might have the potential to diversify portfolios in times of market stress. Maybe that’s true. Maybe not. There’s been a lot of chatter this year about whether the VIX can predict the direction of the market the VIX is just a weighted average of the out-of- the-money SPX options in the first two expirations, and then adjusted to mimic the volatility of an option with 30 days to expiration. Because it works off the actual bid/ask prices of those SPX options, it’s never “wrong.” It’s just a calculation. It is what it is. You can’t control where the market is going. Even picking direction is basically 50/50. But you can control the trading and investment strategy for your money. To me, the VIX is less of a market indicator and more of a strategy indicator. While less informed market participants and “talking heads” focus solely on the VIX as a number, many experienced traders aren’t put off by how high or low the VIX is. They watch it to make more informed decisions about strategy. As a trader, you have to stay a step ahead of the noise. Stocks, indices, commodities, indicators—they all go up, down, or both, every day. Analysts usually try to attach some news or reason to try to explain why the market did what it did. But that’s looking backwards. A trader has to be forward looking. And the VIX can help you with that. If the VIX is going up, it means the out-of-the-money option prices, which are used in the VIX calculation, are rising. What’s making them go higher? Mechanically, it’s because market participants—traders, investors, money managers, you, me—are trying to buy more of them. That buying pressure pushes up the prices of options, which, in turn, pushes up the VIX. Picture 1-2015 VIX Since February of 2015 VIX has been staying pretty constant between 12.5 % to 15 %, it means the out-of-the-money option prices aren’t moving much higher or lower which could mean there really isn’t any strong buying or selling pressure on them. You don’t have to know why, necessarily. Again, it just is what it is. Think about the VIX as a tool to make more informed strategies, rather than to predict market direction. Is it high or low relative to where it’s been for the past few weeks? What you’re trying to do is gauge the overall level of fear or complacency in the market, and how that’s impacting option values Since February 2015 the low VIX (12.5 % to 15 %) was an indication the market might be too complacent, overconfident and over-bought. A sell-off might be in the offing.
Bottom Line
As a trader, you have to stay a step ahead of the noise. Stocks, indices, commodities, indicators they all go up, down, or both, every day. Analysts usually try to attach some news or reason to try to explain why the market did what it did. But that’s looking backwards. A trader has to be forward looking.
1. IF THE VIX IS LOW, that’s an indication that market participants are a bit complacent-in 2015 12.5% to 15 %, and option premiums are relatively low, too. It doesn’t mean they’re undervalued. It just means there’s less extrinsic value in those options than there would be if the VIX were high. That makes some option strategies, such as covered calls, naked short puts, or short verticals, for example, less attractive because the lower option values means less credits taken in for those strategies, which decreases potential profits and increases potential risk. Strategies such as buying slightly in-the-money calls in further expirations as a stock replacement strategy can make sense, particularly if you sell nearer-term expiration out-of-the-money calls against them. It’s like a covered call strategy, but when you use the in-the-money call instead of long stock, you have lower capital requirements and lower risk if the stock drops sharply. Also, in a low-volume environment, the long calls have lower extrinsic value, making them less expensive and have lower risk. That’s a straightforward transition from a covered call, which is buying stock and selling an out-of-the-money call.
VIX 1 year Weekly Chart -June 30 2015
2. IF THE VIX IS HIGH, that’s an indication that there’s a lot of uncertainty in the market, with fear about what might happen in the near term future. Often, the VIX is higher when the market has sold off sharply. Instead of buying stock, you might consider shorting a naked put. This is a strategy some consider when the market or an individual stock has sold off and volatility, i.e. the VIX, is up. The reason is if the stock has hit a recent low, the put is going to have a greater value because the stock price is down and volatility is higher. When you sell an out-of-the-money put for a higher credit, your cost basis for the stock is lower if the stock price declines further and you’re assigned on the put. And that means your maximum loss is lower and your potential profit is higher. But what if the market moves up or down, and the VIX doesn’t change much at all? A trader might scan the rest of the market, from the SP 500 to the NASDAQ composite, bonds, gold, oil, the US dollar and bell-weather stocks. If, say, the market is down, but larger stocks are up, then the VIX could be indicating the market isn’t in “panic mode” quite yet. Alternatively, if the equities in general are up and you expect the VIX to be lower and it’s not, that might indicate growing fear and uncertainty in some of the market participants who are still buying those out-of-the-money options as protection. THE POINT IS THAT YOU DON’T HAVE TO BE an expert option trader to use the VIX. Even novice investors who are getting started with options can use it to help make simple adjustments to their strategy that can potentially work to their advantage. The VIX is simply a tool. Whether it’s good or bad for your trading depends on how you interpret it. It is what it is.
VIX 9 months Daily chart until June 29 , 2015- Dow Jones Industrial drooped 350 points on that day
ASK –Angel - ASK Angel ABOUT STOCKS or the market
Got a question about the stock market or a specific stock?
Email Angel to wallstreetinaction@gmail.com , tweet or follow us in twitter Stockflash4ward Add us or follow in Facebook by looking for Angel Robaina or Wallstreetinaction
Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any mutual fund, exchange traded fund (ETF), stock, bonds and currency-Forex before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other important information, contact your broker. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
This article is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment or investment strategy. Past performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary and all investments involve risks, including loss of principal.
Neither wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward , Angel Robaina nor any of its officers, employees, representatives, agents or independent contractors are, in such capacities, licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers or registered broker-dealers.
Wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina do not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations, nor is it in the business of transacting trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client's situation.
Nothing contained in this communication constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, endorsement or offer by Wallstreetinaction , stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina of any particular security, transaction or investment.
Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial
Wallstreetinaction , Stockflash4ward and Angel Robaina are separate but affiliated companies or individuals that are not responsible for each other's services or policies.
© 2021 WallstreetinAction All rights reserved.
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working on a new video - Coming Soon 1- marketclock.studio 2- marketclockai.live 3- marketclockai.com marketclockai.com marketclockai...
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Commentary : Every day we can see the amount of buy orders and sell orders flow into the trading floors of NYSE, NASDAQ and others financial... -
working on a new video - Coming Soon 1- marketclock.studio 2- marketclockai.live 3- marketclockai.com marketclockai.com marketclockai... -
OBSERVATIONS OF SPECIAL VALUE In this article you will look at the market in terms of a game of cards, observing the wholesale-retail concep...