Market Phase Analysis: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (March 2025 - May 2026) Part # 1

 

Here is a breakdown of the market phases based on  Nasdaq data Since March 2025 

Market Phase Analysis: QQQ (March 2025 - May 2026) Part # 1

1. Early 2025 (March – April): Volatility and Absorption

The market began this period with significant volatility. After hitting a low on April 8th where both Price and Demand Ratios were at zero, we see the first signs of a shift. In the days that followed (e.g., April 9th, April 11th), the Demand Ratio (energy) began to rise to levels higher than the Price Ratio (movement). This is a classic phase of Absorption, where quiet buying pressure begins to build and absorb the available offer, even while the price itself struggles to gain traction.

2. Mid-2025 (May – September): Strong Accumulation

This period was characterized by a steady uptrend. More importantly, the Demand Ratio frequently outpaced the Price Ratio. For instance, on May 19th, the Price Ratio was 0.349 while the Demand Ratio was much higher at 0.463. This difference, the Demand Gap, shows that buying pressure was much stronger than the price movement suggested. This is Accumulation. Energy was being stored in the market, building a foundation for future price moves.

3. Late 2025 (October – November): Momentum and Exhaustion

As the market peaked in late October and early November, the dynamic changed. We see days like November 3rd where the Price Ratio (0.711) was now higher than the Demand Ratio (0.637). This is a Momentum phase, where price movement outruns the energy supporting it. This often transitions to Exhaustion, as the weakening demand can no longer sustain the high prices. This shift signaled that the underlying buying pressure was fading, and Offer was beginning to take control.

4. Winter 2026 (January – February): Correction and a "Head Fake"

The market corrected as expected after the exhaustion phase. Your note on the January 28th Fed announcement is insightful. On that day, the Price Ratio jumped to 0.715, but the Demand Ratio was only 0.514. This shows a price spike driven by news, not by a genuine increase in demand energy. The subsequent fall in price demonstrates that such moves are often unsustainable.

5. Early Spring 2026 (March): Intense Re-Absorption

In early March, we see the most powerful signal in your data. While the Price Ratio was relatively low (around 0.60 - 0.63), the Demand Ratio soared above 0.80. This is an incredibly strong phase of Absorption. It indicates that immense buying demand was aggressively taking all the available offer at those price levels, creating the energy for the final move up.

6. Spring 2026 (April – May): Final Rally to the Peak

Fueled by the immense energy built in March, the price entered its final rally. As it neared its peak in May, it entered another Momentum phase where Price Ratio once again began to exceed the Demand Ratio (e.g., May 8th). The period culminated on May 14th, where Price and Demand achieved a perfect Balance at 1.000, marking the absolute top for this cycle.

Throughout this entire period, the story was not just in the price, but in the energy that drove it. Demand Ratio is the energy behind the market.

Nasdaq 100 

This conversation is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investing involves risk. Professor Clock, StockFlash4Ward, and Angel Robaina are separate but affiliated and not responsible for each other’s services.