Market Phase Analysis: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (March 2025 - May 2026) Part # 2
Here is a breakdown of the market phases based on Nasdaq data Since March 2025
Market Phase Analysis: QQQ (March 2025 - May 2026) Part # 2
The relationship between the price and volume ratios reveals the following cyclical phases:
1. Accumulation Phase (March 2025 – Late April 2025)
This initial phase is characterized by price volatility and the beginning of a bullish divergence, where volume starts to increase despite low or falling prices.
Characteristics: The period begins with a sharp price decline, hitting a bottom of $0.000 on April 8, 2025. Following this bottom, the OBV ratio begins to recover more strongly than the price ratio.
Key Data Points:
On April 9, 2025, the price recovered to $0.164 while the OBV jumped to $0.186.
By April 30, 2025, the price was $0.196, but the OBV had risen to $0.246. This growing positive gap, where the volume ratio is higher than the price ratio, indicates that smart money is accumulating positions at low prices, anticipating a future price increase.
2. Markup Phase (May 2025 – Late October 2025)
Following the accumulation phase, the market enters a sustained uptrend where both price and volume confirm each other.
Characteristics: This phase shows a strong, consistent rise in both the price and OBV ratios. The uptrend is validated by the strong volume inflow, indicating broad market participation.
Key Data Points:
The phase begins with the price at $0.216 and OBV at $0.230 on May 1, 2025.
Both indicators trended upward together, reaching their peaks in late October. On October 29, 2025, the price hit a high of $0.723 with a corresponding OBV peak of $0.791. This synchronized movement confirms a healthy and strong bull market.
3. Distribution Phase (Late October 2025 – Late January 2026)
The market begins to show signs of topping out. This phase is defined by a bearish divergence, where prices remain high or make marginal new highs while the underlying volume momentum weakens significantly.
Characteristics: After peaking in October, the price remains elevated but fails to make significant new highs. Meanwhile, the OBV ratio begins a clear downtrend, indicating that institutional investors are selling their positions (distributing shares) into the remaining market strength.
Key Data Points:
On October 29, 2025, the price peaked at $0.723 with an OBV of $0.791.
On January 28, 2026, the price made a final attempt at a high of $0.715. However, the OBV on this day was only $0.514, drastically lower than its October peak. This significant divergence between high prices and weakening volume was a strong warning of an impending market downturn.
4. Markdown Phase (February 2026 – Late March 2026)
After distribution is complete, the market enters a downtrend, with both price and volume falling together.
Characteristics: The bearish divergence from the distribution phase resolves into a sharp price decline. Both the price and OBV ratios trend down in unison, confirming the bear market.
Key Data Points:
The price fell from the $0.70s at the end of January to a low of $0.468 by March 30, 2026.
The OBV ratio collapsed in tandem, falling from over $0.500 to a low of $0.262 over the same period. This synchronized decline confirms that selling pressure is dominant.
5. Re-accumulation and New Markup Phase (April 2026 – May 2026)
Following the decline, the market quickly bottoms and begins a new cycle, starting with a rapid accumulation and leading into a new, powerful markup phase.
Characteristics: The markdown phase ends in late March, and the market immediately enters a V-shaped recovery. Both price and OBV begin to rise sharply.
Key Data Points:
From a low of $0.468 on March 30, the price rallied strongly, reaching a perfect ratio of $1.000 by May 14, 2026.
The OBV ratio confirmed this powerful new uptrend, rising from its low of $0.262 to a corresponding perfect ratio of $1.000. This indicates the start of a new, strong bull cycle.
Summary of Market Phases
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