The Squeeze of the Century: How SpaceX (SPCX) Trapped the Bears at 90 Days, and What Lies Ahead in the Next 90 Days Sep 1 2026 -Part 1

The Squeeze of the Century: How SpaceX (SPCX) Trapped the Bears at 90 Days, and What Lies Ahead in the Next 90 Days

By Professor Clock

To our 4,500 dedicated subscribers: Welcome to today’s deep-dive structural study case.

When SpaceX officially went public on June 12, 2026, under the ticker symbol SPCX, it marked the most highly anticipated initial public offering in modern financial history. Priced at $135 per share, the listing valued the integrated crown jewel of the technology super-cycle at $1.77 trillion.

During the initial trading frenzy, intense public enthusiasm pushed the stock to its immediate cycle zenith of $211.39 in a matter of days. But as our long-term members know, price is only the reflection—the internal force is the truth. What followed over the next 90 days was a masterclass in institutional clearing, market psychology, and a massive transfer of ownership.

Let’s unpack exactly where SpaceX stands today, and map out the structural trajectory for the next 90 days.

Part 1: The Great 90-Day Post-Listing Shakeout

Following the initial June highs, SPCX entered a classic post-listing digestion phase. As the early excitement faded, the price steadily slid over June and July, eventually reaching an absolute base of $108.27 on August 5.

To the general public, this looked like a structural failure. But beneath the surface, a massive battleground was forming:

The Bear Thesis: Anticipating the August 6 lock-up expiration—the date when early employees and venture investors would finally be permitted to distribute up to 20% of their shares (roughly 911.5 million shares)—short sellers rushed in. 

Video from Aug 4 2026 - Still Valid Today 

They built a massive $23.6 billion short position, making SPCX the most heavily shorted stock on the market. They were betting that an avalanche of employee selling would completely overwhelm market demand.

The Blockbuster Earnings (August 4): Just 48 hours before the lock-up expired, SpaceX reported its first-ever quarterly earnings. The results shocked the street. Revenue surged 92% year-over-year to $7.81 billion, driven by Starlink's expanding subscriber base. Net losses narrowed dramatically, and 

Elon Musk projected a $100 billion annual run rate by the end of the year.

The Aha Moment (August 6 2026- Lock-Up Lifted): 

When the lock-up restrictions were finally lifted on August 6, the anticipated avalanche of employee selling failed to materialize. Much of the unlocked insider equity was held in private structures or restricted by volume limits, meaning employees chose to hold their positions rather than distribute them.

Suddenly, short sellers who had heavily shorted the stock in July found themselves trapped. They had built a massive short position expecting an abundance of supply that simply did not exist. Caught off guard by blockbuster earnings and a dry supply well, the shorts scrambled to cover their positions. This sparked a violent short squeeze, driving the stock in a powerful V-shaped recovery to close August at $143.69.

The Present State: The Coiled Spring

To understand the current state of SpaceX, we must compare its Price Ratio to its Demand Ratio:

                                      Chart # 1 - SPCX Demand Ratio ( DM ) and Price Ratio (PR) 

The Price Ratio measures where the stock currently sits relative to its historical trading range. Today, the Price Ratio is at 0.343, meaning the actual stock price ($143.69) has only recovered to about 34% of its post-listing range.

The Demand Ratio measures the internal buying force driving the asset. Today, our Demand Ratio is running at an incredibly hot 0.927 (92.7% of maximum force).

When we subtract the Demand Ratio from the Price Ratio, we get a massive Negative Demand Gap of -0.584.

This is the ultimate Aha Moment for our subscribers. A deeply negative Demand Gap means that the internal buying force is running far ahead of the actual stock price. The short squeeze has pressurized the internal engine to near-maximum capacity, but the external price is still lagging behind. The spring is fully coiled.

Part 2: The Trajectory for the Next 90 Days

To map out where SpaceX is headed through September, October, and November 2026, we apply a short-cycle S-curve momentum model to the Demand Ratio. The trajectory reveals a highly distinct two-phase sequence that every disciplined investor must understand.

Phase 1: The September Squeeze Climax (The Next 30 Days)

Our momentum modeling shows that the upward trajectory of the Demand Ratio is currently in a state of positive acceleration. This means the immediate path of least resistance is aggressively upward as the remaining short sellers are forced to liquidate their books.

To close the massive -0.584 Demand Gap, the Price Ratio must rise rapidly to align with the internal force.

The Projected Target: The model projects that SPCX will experience a rapid, high-velocity upward run targeting the $170 to $185 range by mid-to-late September.

The Investor Warning: This move is highly likely to trigger intense media hype and retail FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Late-stage retail buyers (Tribe 4) will perceive this run as an unstoppable break back to $211. Do not chase the squeeze at these elevated boundaries.

Phase 2: The Staggered Supply & Reality Check (October – November)

As we enter October and November, SpaceX's unique staggered lock-up framework will become the dominant fundamental force. Rather than a single cliff, SpaceX is releasing supply in controlled 7% tranches every few weeks (including key unlock dates in September and October), culminating in a massive Q3 earnings unlock in late October.

The Deceleration Curvature: As the stock enters the $170–$185 range, early venture investors and employees will naturally take advantage of these elevated prices to distribute their newly unlocked 7% tranches.

The Price Effect: This continuous, orderly release of new supply will gradually satisfy and saturate the buying demand. The internal Demand Ratio will begin to cool off and decelerate.

The Orderly Pullback: Consequently, the stock will enter a healthy, necessary base-building phase, experiencing an orderly pullback from its September peaks to establish a firm, institutional support floor back in the $125 to $135 range in November.

The Strategic Takeaway for Our Subscribers

For our 4,500 members managing long-term, tax-advantaged retirement accounts (like a Roth IRA or 401k), the next 90 days offer a clear blueprint for strategic positioning:

Avoid the September Squeeze Trap: 

Do not accumulate shares during the upcoming high-velocity run to $170–$185. This is the zenith of the short squeeze, where ownership is transferred from strong hands to emotional buyers.

Patience in October: Allow the staggered 7% tranches of employee supply to enter the market and naturally cool down the momentum.

The November Accumulation Opportunity: The orderly consolidation in November back to the $125 to $135 level (right around the original $135 IPO price) represents the ultimate low-risk entry window. This is where major institutions will step in to build their long-term foundations, establishing the launchpad for SpaceX’s multi-year expansion phase.

Stay disciplined, focus on the internal force, and let the market cycles do the heavy lifting for you.

As of Sep 1 , 2026 

                                              CALENDAR NOTE — SEPTEMBER 1, 2026

1. MOST IMPORTANT EVENT OF THE DAY:

US ISM Manufacturing PMI Release — 10:00 AM ET

2. KEY MACRO EVENTS:

Treasury 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions — 11:30 AM ET

3. MOST IMPORTANT EARNINGS REPORT:

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — After Market Close (4:00 PM ET)

4. OTHER NOTABLE EARNINGS:

C3.ai, Inc. (AI) — After Market Close (4:00 PM ET)

5. CRYPTO / ETF EVENTS: Weekly Ethereum Spot ETF Flow Audit — Time varies

Remember: technical structure always shifts before the public reacts. Because the public responds more slowly than the indicators, markets often experience overruns of enthusiasm or weakness before aligning with the underlying structure. Always account for this time lag when interpreting short‑term movement.

As of Sep1 , 2026 -SHORT INTEREST 

As of Sep 1 , 2026 from Nasdaq.com  - Ownership Summary

Show only 10 out of 1736

In the grand theater of the stock market, initial listings are always high-emotion events. But as SpaceX has demonstrated over its first 90 days, the real opportunity is carved out when the early noise settles, the short-seller trap springs, and the structural supply unlocks are absorbed by patient, institutional capital. 

Watch the Demand Ratio and let the short-term squeeze play out. The real wealth-building window lies just on the other side of the September peaks.

Demand Ratio is the force behind the market.

This conversation is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investing involves risk.